"He's great at the sales pitch, and the Democrats and Lassa haven't been able to match that," Mr. Wasserman said.
Mr. Duffy had the advantage of campaigning months ahead of Mrs. Lassa, who only entered the race after Mr. Obey announced his retirement less than six months ago.
University of Wisconsin at Madison political science professor Charles H. Franklin said Mrs. Lassa stumbled early, appearing somewhat unfocused on TV while struggling to develop identifiable campaign themes.
"That may be partly her (or) it may be just that Democrats generally are having a hard time finding the themes that are going to carry them to victory this year," Mr. Franklin said.
The race means more to both parties than simply capturing one of the House's 435 seats. With Mr. Obey serving as chairman of the powerful House Appropriations Committee and holding the seat for more than 40 years, a Republican win would be a symbolic boost for the party and an embarrassment for Democrats.
"By winning the seat Chairman Obey now holds and defeating his handpicked successor, Republicans will be sending Washington Democrats a message that no seat is safe from the backlash over their failed economic agenda," said Tom Erickson, a spokesman with the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), the fundraising arm of House Republicans.
The Duffy and Lassa campaigns have attracted $3 million in outside spending, with more than half coming from the House Democratic and Republican fundraising committees, says the independent Open Secrets website. The district is among the 20 most expensive House races in the country for outside contributors.
"Shady outside groups are spending millions to buy this election for Sean Duffy because they know he would be a reliable special-interest ally in Congress," said Gabby Adler, a spokeswoman with the NRCC's Democratic counterpart, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
But the breakdown of outside help between the two — excluding the DCCC and NRCC — is nearly even: about $722,500 for Mrs. Lassa and about $678,000 for Mr. Duffy.
Big spenders include the Democratic-leaning America's Families First Action Fund, which spent $375,200 to oppose Mr. Duffy, and the politically conservative U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which shelled out almost $266,600 supporting the Republican candidate.
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